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Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction

  • Atlanta Falcons have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.

The Atlanta Falcons (5-7) play the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on 4th December in Week 13 of the NFL. Having won five of their 12 games, the Atlanta Falcons are in second place in the NFC South and have collected two more wins than the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are fourth in the AFC North ahead of this matchup. It’s now getting toward that time of the year when every match counts. For the Atlanta Falcons and the Pittsburgh Steelers, a victory here could prove to be a game-changer in their respective campaigns.

Atlanta Falcons Form

A 19-13 defeat to the Washington Commanders last week left the Atlanta Falcons 5-7 for the season. They are 5-5 across their past 10 games and 4-1 in the last five at home.

In terms of points added, it’s fair to say the Atlanta Falcons have a strong and consistent offense. The unit has put 21.8 points on board in the last five matches after all, while averaging 22.7 points for this season. The art of defending isn’t something the Atlanta Falcons excel in though. By allowing 24.4 points per game, their defense has been below average compared to the rest of the league this year.

2021 was a year to forget for the Atlanta Falcons. The hosts failed to reach the playoffs, having finished third in the NFC South at 7-10, and are expected to miss the NFL postseason again, having gone 5-7 so far in the current campaign.

Pittsburgh Steelers Form

Form is not looking good for Pittsburgh Steelers, who came up short in a 30-37 defeat against Cincinnati Bengals last week. Moreover, they have lost their last four road matches in a row. Their overall record for the last 10 games is 3-7.

The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has struggled to bring its A-game this season, putting up a mere 17.0 points on average. On the other side of the ball, the defense has been relatively average in the league recently. The visitors have given up 23.2 points in the previous five outings, which is more or less on par with the 24.4 points they’ve allowed per game over the course of the regular season.

Reaching the Super Bowl is the ultimate dream for the Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s a big ask though. Not only did the visitors exit in the first round of last season’s playoffs, but they’re only 3-7 this year, and unless things pick up soon, even a postseason berth will be out of their reach.

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers H2H

The total reached 41.5 points in the most recent encounter between these teams in October 2018. The matchup ended in a 41-17 road victory for the Pittsburgh Steelers back then. The Pittsburgh Steelers are riding a three-game winning streak against the Atlanta Falcons and have won five of the last six contests between their two teams.

In their last six head-to-head games, the Atlanta Falcons managed 19.33 points on average per game, while the Pittsburgh Steelers put 28.67 points on board.

Standings

Heading into Week 13 of the regular season, the Atlanta Falcons occupy second in the NFC South standings. They are 5-7 this season and 4-2 at home, while the Pittsburgh Steelers sit fourth in the AFC North and have gone 1-4 on the road and 3-7 overall.

Betting

Moneyline

Backing the Atlanta Falcons (-125) to win outright on the moneyline looks too good to pass up. The hosts have been strong at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium this season, winning four of their last five home games.

Against the Spread

The Atlanta Falcons (-112) open up as the slight 1.5-point favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers, according to oddsmakers. This suggests we could be in for a tight football game between two evenly-matched sides. In the last six matchups in this series, the average points margin between these two sides was 10.3 points.

The Atlanta Falcons have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games. The hosts are also 5-2 ATS in the past seven games at home and 5-5 ATS overall from their previous ten games.

It’s been nip and tuck as far as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ recent road record against the Atlanta Falcons is concerned. Both teams have a 50% win rate from their past two matchups at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium, with an average points margin of 5.0 points between them. In their past 10 matches, the Pittsburgh Steelers went 4-5 ATS and also ended up 2-3 ATS from their six most recent road trips.

Over/Under

The last six games between the Atlanta Falcons and the Pittsburgh Steelers offered a decent average of 48 points on the board.

Going for the Under (-110) might be a daring but rewarding choice, with the total currently set at 41.5 points, as the total average points from the previous five meetings between the Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers was 41.8 points.

The total has averaged 45.4 points in the Atlanta Falcons’ ten most recent games, as well as 48.8 points in their last five at home. Looking back on the last five games on home soil for the Atlanta Falcons, the total went over twice. They are 4-6 against the total overall from their previous ten matches.

As for the Pittsburgh Steelers, the average total has been 41.4 points in the away team’s past ten matches and 40.8 points in the last five on the road. Interestedly, the total has gone under in six of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ past ten matchups against teams from the NFC South.