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Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Prediction

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  • Buffalo Bills have won their last four games in a row
  • Buffalo Bills point score went under in their last three games
  • Miami Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games at home.
  • Buffalo Bills won the last five H2H matches against Miami Dolphins when playing at home.

The Buffalo Bills (10-3) play the Miami Dolphins (8-5) at Highmark Stadium on 18th December at 01:15. The AFC East race is taking shape ahead of this Week 15 divisional matchup. The Buffalo Bills hold first place in the divisional standings, having gone 10-3 after 13 regular season matches. Sitting second is the Miami Dolphins, who are 8-5 from 13 outings. As the regular season enters its final weeks, the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins are both set for the playoffs and will look to extend their grip on a postseason berth by winning the latest matchup of this series.

Buffalo Bills Form

The Buffalo Bills are on a great run of form after making it four straight wins by beating the New York Jets 20-12 last week, leaving them 8-2 in their last 10 matches.

The offense has continued to torment opposing defenses consistently, averaging 26.6 points in the last five matches. This leaves the Buffalo Bills’ tally for the season at 27.2 points overall. The hosts also have one of the most stubborn defensive units in the entire league, having allowed just 17.0 points per game this season.

As the reigning AFC East champions, a successful title defense is a priority for the Buffalo Bills right now. By doing so, they’ll seal a playoff spot and a more favorable tie at home. They currently rank 1st in the AFC Conference standings.

Miami Dolphins Form

The Miami Dolphins were left licking their wounds when the Los Angeles Chargers beat them 23-17 for a second straight defeat last time out. They now have an 8-5 record for the season and are 2-3 in the last five on the road.

The Miami Dolphins have punched above their weight in offense recently. From averaging 24.3 points for the season, the offense has put a solid 27.6 points on board in the last five matches alone. On the other side of the ball, the defense has been relatively average in the league recently. The visitors have given up 24.0 points in the previous five outings, which is more or less on par with the 24.0 points they’ve allowed per game over the course of the regular season.

The Miami Dolphins began the regular season backed to go far in the playoff, and having gone 8-5 from 13 games so far, they’re on course to reach this target. The aim now for the away side is to at least maintain or improve on their sixth seed in the AFC Conference.

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins H2H

The Miami Dolphins bagged a 21-19 win over the Buffalo Bills in the previous matchup between these two franchises. The encounter took place at the Hard Rock Stadium in September 2022. That said, the Buffalo Bills have claimed four wins from their past five matchups against the Miami Dolphins, leaving them with an overall record of 4-1.

One key problem the Miami Dolphins have struggled to fix in this series is how their defense has often floundered against the Buffalo Bills offense, having allowed 17.2 points on average in the last five matchups alone.

Standings

Heading into Week 15 of the regular season, the Buffalo Bills occupy first in the AFC East standings. They are 10-3 this season and 5-1 at home, while the Miami Dolphins sit second in the AFC East and have gone 3-4 on the road and 8-5 overall.

Betting

Moneyline

The Buffalo Bills have rallied off four straight wins as they enter Week 15, so it’s no surprise that they are favored over Miami Dolphins. The Miami Dolphins have struggled on defense, allowing an average of 24.0 points per game which may justify a spread as high as-7.0 The Buffalo Bills are favored to take a home win on the moneyline at -311, while the Miami Dolphins are the +250 underdogs for this matchup. On the point spread, the Buffalo Bills are as high as -7.0 with odds of -110.

Against the Spread

In the Week 15 NFL betting lines, the Buffalo Bills are favored by -7.0 points over the Miami Dolphins. This leaves the home team as the strong favorite to win on Sunday. The 25 most recent matchups in this series have seen an average points margin of 10.6 points.

Home-field advantage usually has paid off for the Buffalo Bills in this series. In their past five encounters with the Miami Dolphins at the Highmark Stadium, the home side bagged five wins by an average winning margin of 17.6 points. In their previous ten games, the Buffalo Bills went 4-5 ATS overall and 5-3 ATS in the last eight games at home.

On the other side of the field, the Miami Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in the last three matches played on the road. In their past 10 matches, the away team went 3-7 ATS and also ended up 3-5 ATS from the eight most recent road trips.

Over/Under

The average total from the previous 25 matchups between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins was 44.48 points.

The average total from the last five meetings between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins was 50.6 points, higher than the 45.5-point over/under betting line set for Sunday’s matchup at the Highmark Stadium.

The total line has gone under in each of the three most recent matches the Buffalo Bills have played out. Meanwhile, on the other side of the market, the total only went over in two of the last five home games for the Buffalo Bills. They are 2-8 against the total across their last ten game overall.

The Miami Dolphins, on the other hand, have cashed in on the over in four of their last five games played on the road. Also worth noting is the fact that over was a winning bet in four of the last five road games for the Miami Dolphins. All in all, they went 5-5 against the total in their past 10 home and away matches combined.