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New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction

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  • Buffalo Bills have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games.
  • Buffalo Bills’ points total went under in their last seven road games

The New England Patriots (6-5) play the Buffalo Bills (8-3) on Friday, 2 at 01:15 at Gillette Stadium. Exactly two wins lie between the teams ahead of this AFC East matchup. The Buffalo Bills boast the better record of the two, winning eight out of a possible 11 to go second in the division, while the New England Patriots follow up in fourth place, with six wins to their account. The Buffalo Bills enter the second half of the regular season with a playoff spot in their sights and a chance to prove themselves on the road against the New England Patriots, who won’t be going anywhere as things stand.

New England Patriots Form

A 33-26 defeat to the Minnesota Vikings snapped the New England Patriots out of a three-match winning streak last week, leaving them 6-4 across their past 10 games and 3-2 in the last five at home.

It’s been a rough few weeks for the home offense in terms of points scored. In the last five matches, the New England Patriots have only put up 19.6 points on average which is way below their season average of 21.7 points. On the defensive side of the ball, there has been no letup whatsoever. The hosts boast one of the stingiest defenses in the entire country, allowing just 18.4 points per game for this season, and have remained formidable in the past five games, having only given up 17.8 points on average.

Despite being one of the pre-tournament playoff favorites, the New England Patriots got a fight on their hands. They’re only 6-5 this year, and unless things pick up soon, even a postseason berth will be out of their reach.

Buffalo Bills Form

The Buffalo Bills hung on to beat the Detroit Lions by a mere three points in their latest matchup, which finished 25-28. It improved their regular season record to 8-3 and 4-2 on the road.

A virtuoso offense is the first step to winning games on the road, which the Buffalo Bills have covered. In 11 rounds this season, the offensive unit has put up a solid 28.1 points on average. The defense, on the other hand, hasn’t been as effective in putting the brakes on opposing offenses of late. In the past five outings, 23.6 points have been lost on average. This is more than the away team usually gives up, having allowed a decent 18.1 points per game this season.

Despite going no further than the wild card round of the playoffs during the previous football season, the Buffalo Bills are hopeful of a potential AFC Championship challenge after going 8-3 in the regular season so far.

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills H2H

The previous matchup between these two franchises ended in a 47-17 win for the Buffalo Bills at the Highmark Stadium in January 2022. In 14 of the past 25 meetings between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills the total went over 44.5 points.

In their past 25 head-to-head games, the New England Patriots pulled off 27.04 points on average per game, whereas Buffalo Bills managed 21.16 points per match.


Heading into Week 13 of the regular season, the New England Patriots occupy fourth in the AFC East standings. They are 6-5 this season and 3-2 at home, while the Buffalo Bills are the joint-leaders in the division alongside the Miami Dolphins, having gone 4-2 on the road and 8-3 overall.



The Buffalo Bills are favored at -238 moneyline odds while the New England Patriots are +195 underdogs on the moneyline in this matchup. Buffalo Bills are as high as -5.5 on the point spread at -111 odds.

Against the Spread

The Buffalo Bills (-108) open as the 5.5-point road favorites against the New England Patriots, according to the oddsmakers. This suggests they should win by over one field goal at the very least. The last five games between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills have produced an average winning margin of 15.6 points, but the oddsmakers misjudged the spread by 8.5 points on average. The current spread is set at 5.5.

The New England Patriots tend to play well at home against the Buffalo Bills. Over the past five games between the two teams at the Gillette Stadium, the home side has won three games by an average margin of 13.3 points. The hosts are also 4-3 ATS in the past seven games at home and 6-3 ATS overall from their previous ten games.

The Buffalo Bills, on the other hand, have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games. In their past 10 matches, the away team went 4-5-1 ATS and ended up 2-4-1 ATS from the seven most recent road trips.


The last 25 games between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills offered a decent average of 48.2 points on the board.

Going for the Over (-112) might be worth a shot, with the total currently set at 44.5 points, as the total average points from the previous five meetings between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills was 46.8 points.

The total has averaged 41.4 points in the New England Patriots’ ten most recent games, as well as 36.2 points in their last five at home. Looking back on the last five games on home soil for the New England Patriots, the total went over two times. They are 5-5 against the total overall from their previous ten matches.

As for the Buffalo Bills, the average total has been 46.7 points in the away team’s past ten matches and 43.4 points in the last five on the road. Against the total, the Buffalo Bills have failed to go over in any of their last five road matches and are 3-7 in the last ten overall.