Home » Picks » New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction

  • by
  • New Orleans Saints won four of their previous five games
  • Atlanta Falcons have won four of their previous five games.
  • Atlanta Falcons have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • Four of Atlanta Falcons’ last five games went under

The New Orleans Saints (4-8) play the Atlanta Falcons (5-8) at Caesars Superdome on 18th December at 18:00. Going into this Week 15 matchup, the Atlanta Falcons are in third place in the NFC South. A tally of five wins is one more than what their opponents have managed all season, with the New Orleans Saints seeing victory four times to go fourth in the NFC South. Expect the gloves to come off in the latest matchup between these two squads. The clock is ticking fast now, with each side still without a playoff berth going into the final weeks of the regular season.

New Orleans Saints Form

A 17-16 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last time out extended the New Orleans Saints’ miserable run of form in the league, leaving the home team with four defeats in five games.

The home offense has been struggling lately. In the last five matches, the unit has only put up 16.5 points on average, which is less than the New Orleans Saints’ season average of 22.1 points. By allowing 23.7 points per game, the away defense has been below average compared to the rest of the league this year as well.

This year, the New Orleans Saints hoped to launch a playoff challenge. However, 13 matches into the current regular season, the hosts are only 4-8 and won’t be around when January football gets underway unless, of course, they can turn things around quickly.

Atlanta Falcons Form

The Atlanta Falcons aren’t in the best of shape at the moment after slipping to a 16-19 defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers last time out. To add insult to injury, they’ve lost their last four road matches. Their overall record for the last ten games is 4-6.

The Atlanta Falcons will bring a middle-of-the-park offense for their latest game on the road, having scored 22.2 points per game this season. On the other side of the ball, the defense has been relatively average in the league recently. The visitors have given up 21.4 points in the previous five outings, which is less than the 24.0 points they’ve allowed per game over the course of the regular season.

Unsurprisingly, the Atlanta Falcons are unlikely to make the NFL postseason as things stand. Few people expected the away side to go far, and given their 5-8 regular season record, it seems they had good reason.

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons H2H

The New Orleans Saints won by a 26-27 scoreline the last time they played the Atlanta Falcons at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which also meant the required total of 41.5 went over. The past 25 meetings have mostly gone in the New Orleans Saints’s favor. In total, they claimed 16 wins with a total score of 16-9. Unless the Atlanta Falcons pull something special out of the bag, this run might well continue on Sunday.

While the New Orleans Saints averaged 25.4 points, the Atlanta Falcons performed an average of 23.08 points in their 25 most recent head-to-head games.


Heading into Week 15 of the regular season, the New Orleans Saints occupy fourth in the NFC South standings. They are 4-8 this season and 3-4 at home, while the Atlanta Falcons sit a joint-second in the NFC South and have gone 1-5 on the road and 5-8 overall.



This match has the makings of a straight win for the New Orleans Saints. They went 5-5 S/U against NFC South teams last season, which was much better than the 3-7 record posted by the Atlanta Falcons. Take the New Orleans Saints (-192) for the win. The New Orleans Saints are favored at -192 moneyline odds while the Atlanta Falcons are +167 underdogs on the Moneyline in this matchup. New Orleans Saints are as high as -3.5 on the point spread at -110 odds.

Against the Spread

The oddsmakers are siding with the New Orleans Saints on the spread, but not by much. The hosts open up as the 3.5-point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons for Sunday’s showdown. A one-score game anyhow seems to be where the smart money lies, as the last five rounds between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons produced an average winning margin of 6.6 points.

Home-field advantage usually has paid off for the New Orleans Saints in this series. In their past five encounters with the Atlanta Falcons at the Caesars Superdome, the home side bagged three wins by an average winning margin of 13.0 points. However, the New Orleans Saints have only covered the spread in half of their past eight home rounds and are 5-4 ATS in the last nine overall.

On the other side of the field, the Atlanta Falcons have failed to cover the spread in the last three matches they played on the road. The visitors are 4-4 ATS from their eight most recent road trips, as well as 4-6 ATS in their last ten games overall.


The total may have passed the 45-point mark, but it didn’t quite go above 50 points, as the last 25 games between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons produced an average of 48.48 points.

The current total on the Week 15 betting line for this matchup is 41.5 points, which is under the 45 points average seen in the past five rounds the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons have played out, but not by much either.

The total has averaged 47.8 points in the New Orleans Saints’ nine most recent games, as well as 47.6 points in their last five at home. Meanwhile, betting on the over would’ve paid out as a winning bet in the last three games at the Caesars Superdome for the New Orleans Saints, who are 5-4 in their last nine home and away matches combined.

The total has gone under in four of the last five matches for the Atlanta Falcons, who have seen 46.2 points on average per game this season. Also worth mentioning is the fact that exactly half the previous 10 road games for the Atlanta Falcons went over. All in all, they are 3-7 in the over-and-under market from their last 10 games overall.